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 Over 1.57 million people in 63 districts in 15 regions need free and subsidized food from the government beginning this November, revealed by the September 2009 Rapid Vulnerability Assessment. According to the report published last October by the Famine Early Warning System Network says that the affected population expected to need food assistance amounting to 56,740 tonnes, from available in-country stocks.
Out of this amount, 5,674 tonnes are recommended for free distribution to 156,989 poor people, and the remaining 51,066 tonnes are for subsidized sales beginning in November 2009 to 1,412,901 people who cannot buy food at market prices. The most affected regions include Arusha (277,653 people), Manyara (166,093), Dodoma (259,190), Tanga (177,460), Kilimanjaro (122,427), Mtwara (90,135), Mara (98,233, Shinyanga (79,866), Mwanza (71,620) and Morogoro (63,399). Prevailing food insecurity in the country all markets registered above five year average prices for all monitored commodities particularly cereals and potatoes, indicating that poor households are constrained in accessing food from markets. The poor market dependent households in both urban and rural areas generally spend a large proportion of their cash income on food so higher prices have forced them to reduce the quality of food consumed. Food security conditions have deteriorated in northern and northeastern parts of bimodal areas affecting mainly pastoral and agro-pastoral households, and marginal agricultural households in lowlands of Kilimanjaro. Water catchments and most shallow wells are dry, reducing availability of water for both livestock and domestic use, the report says. Decreased levels of milk production have reduced incomes from livestock products (milk and ghee sales) and thus limited pastoral households' ability to purchase grains. Deterioration of pasture and water in northern and northeastern areas has triggered abnormal migrations of pastoralists in search of pasture and water for livestock. In Longido, it is reported that 95 per cent of livestock have out migrated, mainly southwards to Kilindi and Handeni districts. Abnormal migration has resulted in long trekking distances, resulting in further deterioration of body conditions and increased mortality. Field reports indicate that there were also massive immigrants pastoral herds from Kenya in search of pasture and water, which has increased pressure on available pasture resources in some areas and resulted in increased levels of conflict. The report further says that vuli harvests start in January and normally contribute 32 per cent of production in bimodal areas and 18 per cent of national production. In the highland areas of Rombo, Lushoto, and Korogwe districts and Kagera and Kigoma regions, the vuli harvest contributes 70 per cent of the cereal harvests and 80 per cent of pulses. In unimodal areas, msimu rains normally start in midâ-November and last until May. According to the most recent Climate Outlook Forum for both the Southern Africa and East Africa regions, as well as the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) climatic outlook forecast, the September to December vuli rains will be normal to above normal due to the impact of the El Ni-o event. Forecasted above normal rains will most likely recharge catchments areas, thus increasing water levels in lakes, rivers, and ponds, which will facilitate increased hydropower production in Hale and Nyumba ya Mungu (in the Pangani River Basin covering the Arusha, Kilimanjaro, and Tanga districts) and Mtera, Kidatu and Kihansi (in Rufiji River Basin). Hydropower supply will enable sustainable running of industrial activities and increase casual labour opportunities in urban centres. TMA has reported the start of rains in Kagera and Mwanza regions extending southwest in bimodal areas, however, rains have not started in the northern and northeastern parts where drought conditions are critical. As a result, pastoralists have not begun to move their herds back home and food security conditions are continuing to deteriorate. Although the anticipated forecast is for normal to above normal rains due to El Ni-o, there is a less likely possibility that rainfall will be below normal. In the event of belowâ-normal rains, food security conditions would deteriorate further. In the northern and northeastern zone, livestock body conditions would continue to deteriorate and livestock mortality would increase due to lack of pasture, water, and long trekking distances. In unimodal areas, reduced rains would shorten the length of the msimu crop-growing period, crops would not reach maturity, and crop production would significantly be reduced. Household food stocks would be depleted further in many households, and more people would turn to markets to source food, placing upward pressure on prices. The food insecure population would increase as the current moderately food insecure population would likely become highly food insecure. However, the most likely scenarios in this Outlook are based on the forecast for normal to above normal rains during the September to December period.
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